A Subjectivist's Guide to Objective Chance
Lewis (David)
Source: Lewis - Philosophical Papers Volume II, Part 5: Probability, Chapter 19
Paper - Abstract

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Author’s Introduction

  1. We subjectivists conceive of probability as the measure of reasonable partial belief. But we need not make war against other conceptions of probability, declaring that where subjective credence leaves off, there nonsense begins.
  2. Along with subjective credence we should believe also in objective chance. The practice and the analysis of science require both concepts. Neither can replace the other. Among the propositions that deserve our credence we find, for instance, the proposition that (as a matter of contingent fact about our world) any tritium atom that now exists has a certain chance of decaying within a year. Why should we subjectivists be less able than other folk to make sense of that?

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