- This pseudo-Paper is intended as the mechanism to record time spent on the Note 'Probability' during my Thesis research, as from 2011.
- Click here for Note.
- For the actual time recorded, click on "Paper Summary" above.
Write-up1 (as at 12/08/2007 10:17:46): Probability
A requirement of great importance, therefore, is the ability to assign a probability to any statement about the world (or within a model), in accord with the likelihood of it being a true statement.
- Ideally2, we would like to assign a mathematical probability to any statement, ie. a real number in the range 0 to 1, with 0 representing impossibility & 1 representing certainty. As in the frequency theory of probability, the assigned number should represent the proportion of situations in which the statement is expected to turn out to be true.
- In practical3 life, where it is unreasonable to assign a numerical probability to an event, we do assign non-mathematical probabilities to statements and base our actions on them.
- It also makes sense to say that certain statements are more probable than others, even when they do not refer to the same domain4 of experience.
- It would seem to be possible to assign a priori5 probabilities to statements about the world, the probability being assigned a priori to that particular potential experience, by reference to other actual experiences, though not a priori to all experience.
- A statement with a low a priori probability may yet have a higher a posteriori probability because of the strength of actual testimony or experimental evidence.
- This is the write-up as it was when this Abstract was last output, with text as at the timestamp indicated (12/08/2007 10:17:46).
- Link to Latest Write-Up Note.
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- Blue: Text by me; © Theo Todman, 2018