<!DOCTYPE html><HTML lang="en"> <head><meta charset="utf-8"> <title>Smith (Martin) - When Probability is Not Enough (Theo Todman's Book Collection - Paper Abstracts) </title> <link href="../../TheosStyle.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"><link rel="shortcut icon" href="../../TT_ICO.png" /></head> <BODY> <CENTER> <div id="header"><HR><h1>Theo Todman's Web Page - Paper Abstracts</h1><HR></div><A name="Top"></A> <TABLE class = "Bridge" WIDTH=950> <tr><th><A HREF = "../../PaperSummaries/PaperSummary_22/PaperSummary_22857.htm">When Probability is Not Enough</A></th></tr> <tr><th><A HREF = "../../Authors/S/Author_Smith (Martin).htm">Smith (Martin)</a></th></tr> <tr><th>Source: Oxford University Press blog, 31st January 2016</th></tr> <tr><th>Paper - Abstract</th></tr> </TABLE> </CENTER> <P><CENTER><TABLE class = "Bridge" WIDTH=600><tr><td><A HREF = "../../PaperSummaries/PaperSummary_22/PaperSummary_22857.htm">Paper Summary</A></td><td><A HREF = "../../PaperSummaries/PaperSummary_22/PapersToNotes_22857.htm">Notes Citing this Paper</A></td><td><A HREF="#ColourConventions">Text Colour-Conventions</a></td></tr></TABLE></CENTER></P> <hr><P><FONT COLOR = "0000FF"><u>Author s Introduction</u><FONT COLOR = "800080"><ol type="1"><li>While out driving one afternoon, I notice a bus speeding down the road towards me. As it approaches, the bus drifts into my lane, forcing me to swerve and strike a parked car. The bus doesn t stop and, while I glimpse some corporate logo on the side, I m shaken and I don t manage to make it out. Later, when I ve recovered myself, I do some investigating and find out that of all the buses operating in the area on the day in question, 90% were owned by one company  the  Blue-Bus company  with the other 10% owned by rival companies. </li><li>Should I take the Blue-Bus company to court and demand compensation for the damage caused? If you were presiding over the case, would you make them pay? When people were presented with cases like this in a series of psychological studies, the majority thought that the company should not be held liable just because they happened to own the majority of buses in the area. And judges and lawyers seem to agree  this example is based upon a real, unsuccessful, lawsuit.</li><li>But there is something curious about this. After all, my evidence against the Blue-Bus company seems very strong  it makes it 90% probable that the bus involved was a Blue-Bus bus. Why isn t that enough? Surely we don t have to be 100% certain before we make the Blue-Bus company pay up  we re rarely 100% certain of anything. Also, it seems that we would be willing to hold the company liable on the strength of other kinds of uncertain evidence.</li></ol></FONT><hr><FONT COLOR = "0000FF"><B>Comment: </B><ul type="disc"><li>See <a name="W5762W"></a><A HREF = "https://blog.oup.com/2016/01/when-probability-is-not-enough/" TARGET = "_top">Link</A>. </li><li>Annotated printout filed with <a name="1"></a>"<A HREF = "../../BookSummaries/BookSummary_06/BookPaperAbstracts/BookPaperAbstracts_6527.htm">Hains (Brigid) & Hains (Paul) - Aeon: Q-S</A>" for want of a better home. </li></ul><BR><FONT COLOR = "0000FF"><HR></P><a name="ColourConventions"></a><p><b>Text Colour Conventions (see <A HREF="../../Notes/Notes_10/Notes_1025.htm">disclaimer</a>)</b></p><OL TYPE="1"><LI><FONT COLOR = "0000FF">Blue</FONT>: Text by me; &copy; Theo Todman, 2018</li><LI><FONT COLOR = "800080">Mauve</FONT>: Text by correspondent(s) or other author(s); &copy; the author(s)</li></OL> <BR><HR><BR><CENTER> <TABLE class = "Bridge" WIDTH=950> <TR><TD WIDTH="30%">&copy; Theo Todman, June 2007 - August 2018.</TD> <TD WIDTH="40%">Please address any comments on this page to <A HREF="mailto:theo@theotodman.com">theo@theotodman.com</A>.</TD> <TD WIDTH="30%">File output: <time datetime="2018-08-02T09:59" pubdate>02/08/2018 09:59:15</time> <br><A HREF="../../Notes/Notes_10/Notes_1010.htm">Website Maintenance Dashboard</A></TD></TR> <TD WIDTH="30%"><A HREF="#Top">Return to Top of this Page</A></TD> <TD WIDTH="40%"><A HREF="../../Notes/Notes_11/Notes_1140.htm">Return to Theo Todman's Philosophy Page</A></TD> <TD WIDTH="30%"><A HREF="../../index.htm">Return to Theo Todman's Home Page</A></TD> </TR></TABLE></CENTER><HR> </BODY> </HTML>