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Christian Tractatus

(Text as at 12/08/2007 10:17:46)

No knowledge is certain.

1. All statements about the world are only more or less probable.
2. Any proposition of reason¹ may turn out to be false due to confusion of ideas or to errors of calculation or logic.
3. Any apparent fact of experience may turn out to be false due to delusion, carelessness or, where at second hand, to misunderstanding in transmission or even to mischievous intent.
4. However, there are many propositions, both of reason and experience, that, for practical purposes are indubitable.
5. That all things are to some degree doubtful does not imply that they are all equally doubtful, nor does it recommend a thoroughgoing scepticism or a limp agnosticism.
6. There are, however, many areas in which it is more candid to profess ignorance than knowledge and others in which there is very considerable doubt² as to the truth.
7. Because we hold that no knowledge is certain, we must clarify what we mean by truth³.
8. A requirement of great importance, therefore, is the ability to assign a probability⁴ to any statement about the world (or within a model), in accord with the likelihood of it being a true statement.
9. Anything of a miraculous nature should be accorded a very low a priori probability, otherwise it would not be categorised as a miracle⁵.
10. We must note that beliefs are not held in isolation, but form a network of interconnected beliefs commonly called a world view⁶.