<!DOCTYPE html><HTML lang="en"> <head> <meta charset="utf-8"> <link href="../../TheosStyle.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"><link rel="shortcut icon" href="../../TT_ICO.png" /> <title>Note: Christian Tractatus (Theo Todman's Web Page)</title> </head><body> <a name="Top"></a> <h1>Theo Todman's Web Page - Notes Pages</h1><hr><h2>Christian Tractatus</h2><p class = "Centered">(Text as at 12/08/2007 10:17:46)<hr> <P><FONT COLOR = "0000FF"><B> However, is not faith required to hold any belief, even if its probability p > 0.5 ? For instance, the probability of survival or the first round of Russian roulette is 5/6 for the first player, but most of us would need faith to undergo the ordeal even though we are more likely to survive than not.</B><ol type="1"><li>The explanation of this problem is the matter of "expected reward". In our game of Russian roulette, the expected first round loss is 1/6 * "value of life", so most of us would require a big incentive to play this game. It is possible to conceive of situations in which we might choose to play, however (eg. if the only alternative was a "two bullet" version!). Faith would only come into this game if one were to persuade oneself that one was not running the risk the odds imply.</li><li>Such a dilemma confronts people who have the possibility of undergoing a pioneering form of treatment for an illness. However, if the alternative is "certain death today", most of us would submit to such treatment.</li><li>In practise, faith is often required because we are not sure of the probabilities involved. In such instances, "faith" = 0.5 - p', where p' is the perceived probability of p being true. </li></ol></P> <BR><HR><BR><CENTER><TABLE class = "Bridge" WIDTH=950><TR> <TH WIDTH="25%">Note last updated</TH> <TH WIDTH="50%">Reference for this Topic</TH> <TH WIDTH="25%">Parent Topic</TH></TR> <TR><TD WIDTH="25%">12/08/2007 10:17:46</TD> <TD WIDTH="50%">394 (Faith - Russian Roulette)</TD> <TD WIDTH="25%"><A href ="../../Notes/Notes_3/Notes_389.htm">Faith - Probability</A></TD></TR> </TABLE></center> <BR><HR><BR><h3>Summary of Note Links to this Page</h3> <CENTER> <TABLE Class = "Bridge" WIDTH=950> <TR> <td bgcolor="#ffcccc" WIDTH="20%"><A href = "../../Notes/Notes_3/Notes_389.htm#1"><span title="Low Quality">Faith - Probability</span></A></TD> <TD WIDTH="20%">&nbsp;</TD> <TD WIDTH="20%">&nbsp;</TD> <TD WIDTH="20%">&nbsp;</TD> <TD WIDTH="20%">&nbsp;</TD> </TR> </TABLE> </CENTER> <P class = "Centered">To access information, click on one of the links in the table above.</P> <a name="ColourConventions"></a><br><hr><br><h3 class = "Left">Text Colour Conventions</h3><OL TYPE="1"><li><FONT COLOR = "0000FF">Blue</FONT>: Text by me; &copy; Theo Todman, 2018</li></OL><BR> <center><BR><HR><BR><TABLE class = "Bridge" WIDTH=950><TR><TD WIDTH="30%">&copy; Theo Todman, June 2007 - August 2018.</TD><TD WIDTH="40%">Please address any comments on this page to <A HREF="mailto:theo@theotodman.com">theo@theotodman.com</A>.</TD><TD WIDTH="30%">File output: <time datetime="2018-08-01T03:24" pubdate>01/08/2018 03:24:52</time> <br><A HREF="../../Notes/Notes_10/Notes_1010.htm">Website Maintenance Dashboard</A></TD></TR><TD WIDTH="30%"><A HREF="#Top">Return to Top of this Page</A></TD><TD WIDTH="40%"><A HREF="../../Notes/Notes_11/Notes_1140.htm">Return to Theo Todman's Philosophy Page</A></TD><TD WIDTH="30%"><A HREF="../../index.htm">Return to Theo Todman's Home Page</A></TD></TR></TABLE></CENTER><HR></BODY></HTML>