(Text as at 12/08/2007 10:17:46)

**In practical life, where it is unreasonable to assign a numerical probability to an event, we do assign non-mathematical probabilities to statements and base our actions on them.**

- For instance, a jury may decide that a defendant is guilty "beyond reasonable doubt". That is, using the mathematical model, be is probably guilty with a probability that approaches 1. However, the ascription of a number (say 0.95) to this probability does not have as precise a meaning as the accuracy of the number suggests. A possibility is to apply a tolerance factor (eg. 0.95 +/- 0.05), which would indicate the degree of uncertainty.

Note last updated | Reference for this Topic | Parent Topic |
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12/08/2007 10:17:46 | 460 (Probability - Practicality) | Probability |

Probability |

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