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Christian Tractatus

(Text as at 12/08/2007 10:17:46)

In practical life, where it is unreasonable to assign a numerical probability to an event, we do assign non-mathematical probabilities to statements and base our actions on them.

  1. For instance, a jury may decide that a defendant is guilty "beyond reasonable doubt". That is, using the mathematical model, be is probably guilty with a probability that approaches 1. However, the ascription of a number (say 0.95) to this probability does not have as precise a meaning as the accuracy of the number suggests. A possibility is to apply a tolerance factor (eg. 0.95 +/- 0.05), which would indicate the degree of uncertainty.

Note last updated Reference for this Topic Parent Topic
12/08/2007 10:17:46 460 (Probability - Practicality) Probability

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Todman (Theo) Thesis - Probability Paper Medium Quality Abstract   Yes

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